27 February 2011

2011 Homerun King Mark Reynolds?

A reader told me to look over at Pinnacle Sports, a betting site that bets on pretty much anything.  The interesting part to us (and is shown below) are the odds on who is the favorite in 2011 to win the home run title in all of baseball.  It goes through Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Jose Bautista, and Adrian Gonzalez before it finds its 7th most likely winner: our very own Mark Reynolds.  This might strike some as fanciful, but Reynolds does have the 3rd most homeruns over the past two seasons and 8th most over the past three seasons.  Based on last year, homeruns were ~15% easier to hit at Camden Yards than at Chase Field.  That might increase his total by about 2 home runs.

In case, you were unaware, the lower the number . . . the better the perceived chance.

In other bets on the site . . . the Orioles 2011 over/under is set at 76 wins, which is about where I have them.

note: I have about 5 articles in various states of completion and have been sick as a dog for a week . . . I should have a flurry of posts some point soon . . . God-willing.

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